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Good trading
Weekly Outlook Video for Jan 31 to Feb 5 2010 is posted to the website at:
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Good trading
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Good trading
Done for the week / Have a good weekend
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Closed EUR/USD +22 let me explain why I took this trade it was a discretionary trade a few hours earlier we had tested the top of the 100 lr std 2 line on the 15 min chart , it got hung up on its way down at the median I had a breakout indicator that was getting ready to signal I suspected short but did not know for sure , the trend is currently to the short side and we had a candle that closed below the median 15 min before. As I was waiting for the BR to signal I watched the pound break support and continue down that is when I decided to jump ahead of the br indicator and enter the trade.
Good Trading!!!
Good Trading!!!
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Short EUR/USD 1.3955 looking for 1.3920 stop 1.4010
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Closed EUR/USD at 1.3970 +23 pips we were hitting the bottom of the 100 2 std lr line plus Geither is speaking and we have debate starting on Bernanke confirmation .
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Short EUR/USD at 1.3993 stop at 1.4065 We have a breakout indicator signaling a short and a good pullback to the 21 wave . I am a little cautious about this trade just due to the psyc level of 1.4000 but overnight we did have a 3o min bar close below it and the trend is down so I am willing to take the risk. I have set a target of 1.3955 I will watch this trade very close for any signs that the trend might be changing . Be careful today I don't think we will get any but we could see some surprises from the senate on the Bernanke confirmation
good trading
good trading
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Fomc Day
I do not trade today due to the unpredictability in the markets. The Fed could do a number of things today that could bring more risk aversion into the forex market. We do not know whether they will acknowledge the bad data in the jobs market as a slow down in the economic recovery or if they just consider it a blip in the recovery. Everyone today will watch the tone of there statement as for rates it is well believed that they will hold rates steady. For me Fomc is a watch and sit on your hands day, what it will do is help to determine whether dollar strength (risk aversion) will continue in the forex markets and continue to weight on the equity markets.
good trading!!!
I do not trade today due to the unpredictability in the markets. The Fed could do a number of things today that could bring more risk aversion into the forex market. We do not know whether they will acknowledge the bad data in the jobs market as a slow down in the economic recovery or if they just consider it a blip in the recovery. Everyone today will watch the tone of there statement as for rates it is well believed that they will hold rates steady. For me Fomc is a watch and sit on your hands day, what it will do is help to determine whether dollar strength (risk aversion) will continue in the forex markets and continue to weight on the equity markets.
good trading!!!
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Closed EUR/USD at 1.4085 +8 used 1 hr rule to close.
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Short EUR/USD at 1.4093 on LR and DT stop 1.4123 open target
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closed GBP/USD long at 1.6158 +23
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Long GBP/USD 1.6135 at of bottom of LR and DB stop at 1.6077 target 1.6180
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Long EUR/USD at 1.4162 stop at 1.4115 targeting 1.4200 level off breakout indicator signal confirming with the 21 wave
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We were stopped out on our GBPUSD
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Short GBPUSD from 1.6138 off a breakout signal at the 1 std 100 lr line stop 1.6185
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Both signaled EUR long and GBP short stayed out of both the signal was right at the linear regression median plus with the opposite directions and the previous range on a 15 min chart it seemed too unpredictable to take a trade better to be safe and preserve capital then gamble, there is always another trade.
EURUSD squeeze gave an entry short about 30 min ago I passed on the entry we were very close to the .382 daily retracement of the 2009 highs so i am expecting a temporary pull back here at the 1.4100 level
closed GBPUSD at 1.6309 +14 pips closed here to be safe its the second test of a major support level it might break it it might not I just don't know so played it safe banked my 14 pips and will just watch from the sidelines.
Squeeze fired to the short side and will confirm at the close of this bar on GBPUSD the pair ran during this bar right into support I am going to be cautious about chasing it at these levels will keep an eye on the 5 min chart for a possible retrace to the 21 wave and a rb then might enter short.
I am watching GBPUSD for a possible squeeze breakout currently bulls and bears are fighting for control on a 15 min chart . It is like a rubberband being stretched and stretched soon or later its going to give and we will have an Asia session trend.
Very nice squeeze play on both the EURUSD and GBPUSD overnight missed both you have to sleep sometime . Key is too be patient and look for a new setup.
Waiting for a break of the overnight range in EURUSD to determine a direction for the day so at this point just sitting on my hands.
Short GBP off a 5 min squeeze plus reversal of linear regression channel std 1 with a valid RB entry 1.6293 stop 1.6360 target 1.6268
No trades today the market has just not made sense, we have had no real follow through in either the eu or gbp. Bulls and bears are fighting for control I am going to sit on the sidelines until I can identify a winner.
Feel i should have stayed in the eu long trade missed out on an extra 20 pips but stuck to my plan got a piece of the move and I need to be happy about that
Posted chart late Liner reggression lines might be off from real time
Jumped the Gun a little shorted EU at 1.4494 off the squeeze and a retrace back to the wave stop at 1.4522
The squeeze fired short on the 15 min EU chart we are at the bottom of the LR line so I am staying out at the moment I am going to look for a retrace on the 5 min back to the 21 wave then a rb to get short.
Closed GBP 1.6129 at bottom of LR line when prices started reversing on 5 min chart ( still think this will go to 6100 area). +21 looking at the chart above you can see how the 50 and 100 lr std 2 lines formed a point in my exp this has provided strong support.
Glad i exited anything can happen during NFP even if everyone is thinking the same thing the opposite can always happen .
last night before i went to bed placed a sell stop on EU at 1.4299 it triggered in the middle of the night placed a large stop I knew there might be some volatility my stop was 1.4400 just closed the trade at +30 before NFP. Some (Omid) LOL would call this a risky trade (am I right) but I had all 3 signals confirming all the sentiment is for a dollar positive NFP number. I also felt that if we broke 1.4300 I would wake up below the 1.4300 level. I think this was one of the less risky trades I have ever taken.
Looking at the eur/usd chart and really want to play a box play for a breakout of the box. But I realize this nfp has the very likely possibility of being very volatile so worried that even though we might get a break of the box my stop will not hold if I have to hold the trade through NFP so am sitting on my hands may even need handcuffs LOL
deleted EU short order (No Trade) glad I used the sell stop kept me from being in a trade that I might have had to hold overnight or through NFP
I got a squeeze signal with lr confirmation and trend but it occurred at 1.4315 I am worried about the 1.4300 level there is a pocket of support here so trying something different set a sell stop order for 1.4294 I will cancel if the squeeze signal cancels will update post as to what happens
Long EU at 1.4376 offpull back to wave and lr medium line with good rb stop at 1.4339 will trail for ultimate target of 1.4450
closed GU at 1.5975 +13 pips did not want to leave it open while I slept still think GU will go to support at 1.5875 on the daily but stop was too tight to let it ride especially with GU and not being able to watch it.
GU short off triple top entry 1.5988 stop 1.6025 target 1.5875 with abilty to exit all or part after 20 pips
Trading plan
These are updates to my written trading plan
Trading style
I am going to try 3 different strategies this year
1) the squeeze using a 34 wave as confirmation have the abilty to test
a 21 wave instead
2) linear regression channels 100 and 50 using the 34 or 21 wave as
confirmation
3) long term swing trades using TOS signals
Trading Psychology
I am going to blog journal entries entries and exits
Rick